Barack Obama is leading in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida according to polls conducted by Quinnipiac University (one of Nate Silver’s preferred pollsters so they’re good enough for me). The gains are due to independents moving toward Obama after the debate, the economy turning overall voting confidences to him and Sarah Palin’s declining favorability. I’ll be honest and say I started laughing when I saw that she had a negative favorability rating in Florida and Pennsylvania and is just breaking even in Ohio. I really want to see the change in those numbers after her debate with Joe Biden. 

The numbers: 

Florida: 

Pre-debate: 49 Obama, 43 McCain 

Post-debate: 51 Obama, 43 McCain 

Of the post-debate numbers, men favor McCain 50-45 while women favor Obama 57-37. McCain leads among whites 50-45. Independents are for Obama 52-40. 79% of Florida voters watched the debate, favoring Obama’s performance 49-34. Obama’s favorability is 58-33 while McCain scores a 52-39. 

60% of Florida voters consider the economy the biggest issue and they trust Obama more than McCain in this area 53-39. But they trust McCain more on foreign policy (52-41). 

Sarah Palin has a negative favorability rating in Florida with 36-39 (Biden’s doing well at 47-27).

Ohio: 

Pre-debate: 49 Obama, 42 McCain 

Post-debate: 50 Obama, 42 McCain 

Obama leads 53-39 among women and is tied with McCain (46-46) among men. Independents favor Obama 46-42. Of the 64% of Ohio voters that watched the debate, 49-33 favored Obama. Obama’s Ohio favorability is 54-32 with McCain at 49-40. 

59% of Ohio voters consider the economy to be the biggest issue and they favor Obama in that area 50-39. They prefer McCain when it comes to foreign policy (53-38). 

Sarah Palin’s favorability is even at 35-35. Joe Biden fares better with 38-27. 

Pennsylvania: 

Pre-debate: 49 Obama, 43 McCain 

Post-debate: 54 Obama, 39 McCain 

Obama leads 58-34 among women and 49-45 among men. Independents favor Obama 59-29. 69% of the voters saw the debate and they favored Obama 51-30. His overall favorability is 61-28 while McCain has a nearly even split at 45-44. 

59% of the voters consider the economy the biggest issue and they prefer Obama for that issue 55-36. They trust McCain more with foreign policy but not by much (48-45). 

Sarah Palin has a negative favorability rating of 34-37. Joe Biden does much better with a 49-23.

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